Economists Are Always The Last To Know

They keep talking about this like it's going to go away. We're going to recover, like a nation of dried out drunks. The reality is this new economic landscape is a permanent condition. I thought tax cuts were supposed to create jobs. We've had the lowest tax rate in decades over the last ten years, so where are the freakin' jobs?

You don't have to wonder how this happened. In the 70s, your father's recession would hit for awhile and then the jobs would come back and we would break out of it. But as the century came to a close American companies had the vision to outsource jobs. So now we are waiting for jobs to come back but they're gone for good. Whole layers of employment in some industries have disappeared. They might not have been the BEST jobs but they were jobs. Companies are making record profits but unfortunately we are not sending the unemployed into space. They remain here on Earth with us.

My favorite part is where it says the recession officially ended two years ago. If these reports baffle economists maybe we ought to have other people looking these things over. I'm sure the average guy that works in a gas station could tell you we're fucked and he could explain it perfectly, just as I have in these few brief paragraphs.

Economists were also the last to know about the Internet bubble, the housing bubble, and the mortgage backed securities disaster. If the economists were a sports team you'd be calling into talk radio shows and screaming about trading them. As it stands the economists don't really know anything but THEIR jobs don't seem to be in jeopardy, even though they get everything wrong over and over again. Maybe I should have become an economist instead of heading out to sea. The road not taken.

Hiring slowed to a near-standstill last month, raising doubts that the economy will rebound in the second half of the year.

The report baffled economists who had predicted much stronger job creation. And it escalated a debate in Washington over how to spur hiring and energize the economy while also cutting federal spending.

Just 18,000 net jobs were created in June, the fewest in nine months. The unemployment rate rose to 9.2 percent, the highest rate of the year, the Labor Department said Friday.

Stocks plunged after the report was released, although the market recovered some losses in late-afternoon trading. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 62 points for the day. Broader indexes also fell.

For President Barack Obama, the sputtering job market represents a threat 16 months before his re-election bid.

"Our economy as a whole just isn't producing nearly enough jobs for everybody who is looking," Obama acknowledged in a speech in the White House Rose Garden.

Obama used the dismal job data to press Congress to raise the government's borrowing limit. He also said Congress could strengthen the economy by passing three free-trade accords, approving government projects to create construction jobs and extending a Social Security tax cut.

But Republicans oppose an increase in the $14.3 trillion borrowing limit without steep cuts in spending. And they said the report reinforces their argument that tax increases would stunt job growth and shouldn't be part of any deal.

Friday's report suggested that a slowdown that struck the economy in the spring and curtailed job creation may be more than brief.

"June's employment report doesn't have a single redeeming feature," said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics. "It's awful from start to finish."

Two years after the recession officially ended, companies are adding fewer workers despite record cash stockpiles and healthy profit margins.

A result is that more people are giving up looking for work. More than a quarter-million people stopped their job searches in June. That kept the unemployment rate from rising even further. When laid-off workers stop looking for work, they are no longer counted as unemployed.

Including discouraged workers and those working part time, but who would prefer full-time work, the "under-employment" rate jumped from 15.8 percent to 16.2 percent.

[Associated Press]